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Bitcoin market participants' views diverge wildly over the significance of the $100,000 BTC price milestone this week.
Bitcoin seals another record weekly close as a fresh BTC price dip survives just hours before being bought up.
After a brief last-minute dip into the weekly close, BTC price action ended strong and at the time of writing was back above $98,000, Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Traders are focused on the battle to cross the $100,000 mark for the first time as sell-side liquidity continues to replenish.
The stakes are high — investors are getting increasingly risky with trades, as evidenced by cross-crypto liquidations of $500 million on the dip, which took BTC/USD to $95,800.
“Passive buyer likely created that sunday low,” trader Skew concluded in part of his latest market analysis on X.
BTC/USDT 15-minute chart with liquidity data. Source: Skew/X
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that a “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market now sits closer to the top of its historical range, potentially laying the foundation for further recovery.
“The gap sits right at the all-time highs and the $99K+ price level. Seeing how close price is trading to it already, I’m assuming we’ll try to close it fully relatively soon,” he said.
CME Bitcoin futures 15-minute chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Zooming out, liquidity, per data from Hyblock Capital uploaded to X by trader CrypNuevo, could yet favor a trip below $90,000.
“If we have a look at the 7 days liquidation heatmap... We can see those two zones in the chart: $100.6k and $88.5k,” he said.
“It could be a clue that $88.5k is showing more liquidity than the upside level. So, in principle, should give slighly higher chances/priority to this zone.”
BTC liquidation heatmap for Binance. Source: CrypNuevo/X
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on prediction markets seeing a median end-of-year BTC price of $127,000.
Still, the first hurdle for bulls is the upcoming November monthly close.
At $98,000, Bitcoin easily sealed the highest weekly close in history on Nov. 24.
November’s performance is shaping up to be the best in five years for BTC/USD, while Q4’s gains currently stand at 54.5%, per data from the monitoring resource CoinGlass.
Crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Despite this, bulls have been unable to breach the key $100,000 line, which has led some to ready BTC price correction targets.
“Bitcoin with another massive weekly candle. The $100k mark is very a psychological level for many institutions/ traders,” trader Crypto Fella told X followers.
“Don't be surprised if we see a correction in the coming period. In fact it would be healthy for the overall market sentiment.”
Others, however, see little importance behind $100,000, a level still untouched in Bitcoin’s history and, as such, no more than a collection of digits on a screen.
“100,000 is not a technical level. It is not a psychological level as well,” fellow trader Aksel Kibar argued this weekend.
“But for some it might be a nice level to post memes and celebrate.”
BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X
Kibar uploaded a chart showing significant BTC price tops, with the next key level closer to $140,000.
Another post queried Bitcoiners’ “obsession” with the six-figure BTC price tag; Kibar then contrasted it with when gold first passed $1,000.
CoinGlass, meanwhile, shows that the extent of ask liquidity piled up just below $100,000, with the price eating into a key liquidation level of $98,750.
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
It may be Thanksgiving week, but US macroeconomic data still has plenty of potential volatility in store for crypto and risk assets.
The events begin on Nov. 26 with the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s November meeting, where it decided to cut interest rates by another 0.25%.
A day later, the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index will be released, along with unemployment data.
Revised Q3 GDP numbers top off an important two days for risk-asset traders before the Thanksgiving holiday.
As Cointelegraph continues to report, all eyes are on the Fed for cues over future policy moves amid a brewing “stagflation” environment where resurgent inflation is accompanied by mounting unemployment.
As such, markets are unsure of what the next meeting on Dec. 18 will bring.
“PCE inflation data will be market moving as odds of a December rate cut have receded,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said on X.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently puts the chance of another 0.25% cut at 56%, down from almost 75% a month ago.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
“Most recently, Fed Chair Powell said they are not ‘in a hurry’ to cut rates just 2 months after starting cuts with a 50 bps reduction for the first time since 2008. Core CPI inflation is now back on the rise and has been above 3% for 43 straight months,” Kobeissi said in another X post this weekend.
“The Fed is backtracking again.”
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) are increasingly tempted to take profits at levels far above breakeven.
The latest data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that these “diamond hands” are realizing large profits on a daily basis.
On Nov. 22, as Cointelegraph reported, aggregate realized profits hit a new record of $443 million.
“Unrealized Profit levels are elevated, currently sitting at 57%,” contributing analyst Maartunn added, uploading the data to X.
Bitcoin daily realized profit loss ratio. Source: Maartunn/X
Selling naturally does not only involve investors who are used to sitting on their hands. Short-term holders (STHs) — those holding for 155 days or less — are also active.
Analyzing the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) metric for the STH cohort, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Avocado_onchain warned that this trend could affect BTC price momentum.
“Historically, when applying a 30-day moving average to the Short-Term SOPR, it has been observed that during bullish trends, short-term SOPR tends to reach around 1.02 before profit-taking occurs. Each time this level has been reached, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a pullback or correction,” they noted in a Quicktake blog post.
“Currently, the 30-day moving average of the Short-Term SOPR has reached 1.02, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price, while close to $100,000, could face a short-term correction.”
Bitcoin STH-SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant followed others in suggesting that massive capital inflows could cancel out any significant sell-side pressure.
These have chiefly come from institutions over the past two months as the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) break records.
“However, if capital inflows into the market continue and investors remain eager to buy Bitcoin, this historical pattern could be overridden, leading to a strong breakout beyond $100,000,” Avocado_onchain continued.
Source: Ki Young Ju
The latest data from sources, including UK-based investment firm Farside Investors, shows the extent of interest in the US ETFs. The five trading days through Nov. 22 saw total net inflows of $3.35 billion — more than any other week.
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
“November is shaping up to be a record month for Bitcoin ETFs, with nearly ~$7B net inflows so far and just a week to go—well on track to surpass February’s ~$6B,” Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of onchain analytics firm Glassnode, noted over the weekend.
“Notably, we've only seen a single negative month since inception (April, -$1B).”
Glassnode previously considered that the ETFs may continue to overcome LTH selling as BTC price climbs ever higher.
“As Bitcoin broke above $75.6k, 100% of the 14M BTC held by long-term holders moved into profit, enticing an acceleration in spending. This has led to a non-trivial balance decline of +200k BTC since the ATH break-out,” it said in the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week Onchain,” released on Nov. 20.
“This is a classic and repeating pattern, where long-term holders begin taking profits whenever price action is strong, and demand is sufficient to absorb it. With a significant amount of Bitcoin still under LTH ownership, it is likely that many LTHs are waiting for higher prices before releasing more coins back into liquid circulation.”
Bitcoin LTH supply in profit (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
Written by William Suberg for cointelegraph.com
